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Following
my visit to Korea, Japan, USA and Europe, it is pleasing
to see a positive tone emerging from all areas.
The
wool pipeline is relatively empty especially in the
merino end from 19.0 micron and finer.
Interesting
to note that sheep numbers in Australia have dropped
by 59 million sheep in the last 10 years.
Overall
the complete wool scene has seen an upswing in prices.
We expect to see CROSSBREDS averaging around 20 to 40
cents clean above last season. CORRIEDALES and HALF
BREDS - around 50 to 80 cents up. MERINOS at an average
of 19.0 micron - around 150 to 250 cents up.
The
general trend for fabrics is heading for finer and lighter
weights. This trend will help maintain the higher prices
for MERINOS especially 18.0 and finer, where we have
already seen a lift in price of over 400 cents since
November 1999.
The
question in all our minds is "Can these prices
be sustained over a long period?"
I believe they can. Whilst it is difficult to predict
much beyond 2 years, I feel comfortable in suggesting
that prices should hold within a 5 to 10% band of current
levels, for a period of 2 to 3 years.
The
mid micron wools are not quite the gloom and doom that
some people are portraying. Some new innovations in
blanket manufacturing and the revival of some traditional
fabrics, has seen an improvement in this area.
Most
mills I visited (23 in total) were reasonably comfortable
with current price levels and like growers, they hope
to see more stability with prices.
With
higher oil prices pushing up the cost of synthetics,
crossbred wools should move up a notch. We expect to
see a low of 400 cents clean to a high of 450/460, giving
an overall increase of around 30 cents.
I
trust the winter's kindness will continue, and wish
you all (with confidence) a prosperous season in all
aspects of farming.
Your
sincerely
Peter Marshall
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